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There will be a few significant events in the upcoming week. Of course, reports such as industrial production, retail sales, and new home sales should be noted. At first glance, they do not appear to be able to change market sentiment. While the European Central Bank meeting and UK inflation data at least have some potential to influence the market, the US data do not appear to carry such weight.
As a result, everything will come down to Donald Trump's decisions. The president may take a break, as endlessly imposing tariffs isn't feasible — it simply makes no sense. All countries have been granted a 90-day grace period, so we will likely not see new tariffs against them. China has so far stopped tariffs at 125% and has not yet responded to Trump's most recent increase to 145%. Therefore, a pause is also possible here. If the pause lasts at least a week, the US dollar may get a chance to recover slightly.
Unfortunately, we are talking about Trump, meaning making forecasts is essentially pointless. The current wave markings for both instruments suggest a new prolonged uptrend. However, if Trump pauses, it will be extremely difficult for the euro and the pound to continue rising. New tariffs have triggered every drop in the dollar in recent months. As I've said, wave analysis cannot be a primary reference point in forecasting under current conditions.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to form a new upward trend segment. Donald Trump's actions have reversed the previous downward trend. As a result, the upcoming wave structure will entirely depend on the US president's stance and actions — something that must always be kept in mind.
From a purely wave-based perspective, a corrective wave structure is likely forming, typically consisting of three waves. However, wave 2 may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, wave 3 of the upward trend may have already begun — with potential targets reaching as high as the 1.25 area.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has transformed. We are now dealing with an upward impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and reversals that do not align with wave patterns or technical analysis. Therefore, at the moment, a corrective wave structure should be expected, the size of which will also depend on Trump. Afterward, the formation of wave 3 of the uptrend could follow — but only if Trump's trade policy doesn't make a complete U-turn, which currently seems unlikely.
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*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento hacia el norte el miércoles, aunque a primera vista no había razones claras para ello. Sí, el nivel de inflación (el único
El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su movimiento ascendente durante el miércoles. El dólar estadounidense lleva cayendo sin pausa por más de una semana, algo que no sucedía en todo
El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su crecimiento el miércoles, que había comenzado el martes. Recordemos que el martes el mercado no tenía ninguna razón de peso para deshacerse masivamente
El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su recuperación durante el miércoles en un contexto de calendario macroeconómico absolutamente vacío. Ni siquiera destacamos el único informe del día sobre la inflación
El lunes, la moneda estadounidense se fortaleció considerablemente tras el éxito en la primera ronda de negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China, aunque, en esencia, ambas partes solo acordaron
El par de divisas EUR/USD estuvo prácticamente todo el martes en una tendencia alcista. Uno se acostumbra rápido a lo bueno, y el mercado claramente esperaba una continuación del fortalecimiento
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