empty
04.04.2025 11:10 AM
Old market rules broken

Someone is not telling the truth. Donald Trump insists that everything is going well and that the markets will flourish. But the S&P 500 just posted its worst 10-week start after Trump's inauguration since 2001, wiping out $3 trillion in market capitalization. Investors are losing faith in the Republican leader, while Fitch Ratings warns that tariffs are changing the rules of the game. We have entered an entirely new macro landscape. The winning bet of "buy the dip" no longer works.

Following the White House's sweeping import tariffs, the average US tariff rate has jumped from 2.2% to over 20%, marking the sharpest increase since the 1950s. Back then, it triggered a recession. History risks repeating itself. UBS estimates that GDP cloud shrink by 2 percentage points in 2025. Nomura forecasts modest growth of just 0.6%, while Barclays offers a slightly brighter view of a 0.1% contraction. Notably, when Trump took office, the economy was growing at 2.8%. Unsurprisingly, investors are selling dollars and stocks, abandoning the notion of American exceptionalism.

S&P 500 performance in absolute and percentage terms

This image is no longer relevant

The S&P 500 has entered correction territory again, although full-blown recessions have historically seen losses of 20% or more — still a long way off. Nonetheless, the index's downward trajectory signals recession risks ahead. Markets are currently pricing in a 48% chance of a downturn in the next 12 months, up from 38% before the White House tariff announcement on April 2, according to Polymarket.

UBS Global Wealth Management downgraded US equities to "neutral" from "most favored" and cut its year-end S&P 500 forecast to 5,800 from 6,400, citing tariff-induced volatility. Hedge funds dumped stocks in March at the fastest pace in 12 years, according to Goldman Sachs.

Wall Street analysts have trimmed their 2025 earnings growth forecasts for US corporates to 9.5% from 13% in January. Despite falling P/E multiples, the current valuation of the S&P 500 at 20 times earnings still looks stretched relative to historical norms.

Global equities vs. bond yields

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

The White House's tariff blitz has not just rocked US markets — global equities are also reeling. Risk aversion has pushed up the correlation between MSCI's global index and 10-year US Treasury yields. At the same time, US equities are underperforming their international peers, putting pressure on the US dollar.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 is still in a correction from its broader uptrend. Both downside targets at 5,500 and 5,400 were hit on short positions. While a brief rebound in the broad index is possible, as long as it trades below 5,500, the bias remains towards selling.

Recommended Stories

El caos en los mercados continuará (hay probabilidad de una continuación de la caída local del #USDX y del precio del oro)

Los mercados continúan actuando a ciegas en medio de las acciones caóticas de D. Trump, quien intenta sacar a EE.UU. de la más profunda crisis integral como el barón

Pati Gani 11:26 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de mayo. El mercado vuelve a responder sin ambigüedades a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento hacia el norte el miércoles, aunque a primera vista no había razones claras para ello. Sí, el nivel de inflación (el único

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de mayo. Un nuevo golpe al dólar: «One big beautiful bill act».

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su movimiento ascendente durante el miércoles. El dólar estadounidense lleva cayendo sin pausa por más de una semana, algo que no sucedía en todo

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se convierte en víctima de estafadores

La confianza en el mundo financiero no solo puede perderla el dólar estadounidense. La información sobre el robo de datos de aproximadamente 197 mil clientes de Coinbase, la mayor plataforma

Marek Petkovich 14:05 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 19 de mayo. ¿Qué esperar de la inflación en EE. UU.?

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó el viernes su movimiento lateral, que ya se observa desde hace un mes. En principio, en la ilustración del marco temporal de 4 horas

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 19 de mayo. La guerra comercial frena al dólar.

El par de divisas EUR/USD se negoció con caídas mínimas durante la jornada del viernes, con una volatilidad en general a la baja tras un «abril loco» La divisa estadounidense

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD. En la trampa del rango lateral

El par euro-dólar sigue cotizando dentro de un rango estrecho, reaccionando de forma débil a acontecimientos fundamentales importantes. Por tercer día consecutivo, los compradores de EUR/USD intentan volver

Irina Manzenko 12:47 2025-05-16 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 15 de mayo. El calvario del dólar continúa.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su crecimiento el miércoles, que había comenzado el martes. Recordemos que el martes el mercado no tenía ninguna razón de peso para deshacerse masivamente

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 15 de mayo. La fe del mercado en el dólar está por el suelo.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su recuperación durante el miércoles en un contexto de calendario macroeconómico absolutamente vacío. Ni siquiera destacamos el único informe del día sobre la inflación

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 14 de mayo. Solo importa el tratado comercial.

El lunes, la moneda estadounidense se fortaleció considerablemente tras el éxito en la primera ronda de negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China, aunque, en esencia, ambas partes solo acordaron

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-05-14 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.