Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 149.69 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed the entire move down.

In the second half of the day, all attention will shift to Trump's speech and the announcement of reciprocal tariffs. This decision will undoubtedly trigger a chain reaction across the global economy, provoking volatility in the currency markets and heightening fears of a looming trade war. The initial trader reaction will be crucial. If the actual tariffs differ significantly from Trump's earlier statements, demand for the U.S. dollar will likely return—leading to a weakening of the yen.

As for today's intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 149.49 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.11 (thicker green line). Around 150.11, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point retracement). A rise in the pair may occur as part of an upward correction. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 149.12 level, while the MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels of 149.49 and 150.11 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 149.12 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 148.75, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point bounce). Selling pressure could emerge at any time today—especially after Trump's speech. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 149.49, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would cap the upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A move toward the opposite levels of 149.12 and 148.75 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or point to manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or point to manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – When entering trades, it's important to watch for overbought and oversold signals.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders must make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental data to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you're not practicing proper money management and trading with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.