Trade Analysis and GBP Trading Recommendations

The first test of the 1.2420 price level coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling the pound. The second test of 1.2420, shortly afterward, aligned with the MACD being in the oversold zone, which allowed Scenario #2 to play out, resulting in a 20-point increase in the pair.

With no significant UK economic data to put pressure on the British pound, buyers may take advantage of the pair's upward trend and build long positions ahead of key US economic statistics. However, despite the neutral GBP/USD outlook, questions regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy remain on the horizon. Any changes in the Fed's approach could impact both the dollar and the pound, making it crucial for traders to closely monitor policymakers' statements.

For today's intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point is reached in the area of 1.2465 (green line on the chart) with the aim of rising to the level of 1.2492 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 1.2492, I'm going to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is possible to count on the growth of the pound in the near future within the framework of an upward trend. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 1.2441 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse upward reversal of the market. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 1.2465 and 1.2492.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.2441 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target of sellers will be the level of 1.2406, where I'm going to exit sales, as well as immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell the pound as high as possible, as trading will be conducted against the trend. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 1.2465 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2441 and 1.2406.

Key Chart Elements:

• Thin Green Line: Buy entry price.
• Thick Green Line: Take profit level for long trades (further upward is unlikely beyond this point).
• Thin Red Line: Sell entry price.
• Thick Red Line: Take profit level for short trades (further downward is unlikely beyond this point).
• MACD Indicator: Key for overbought/oversold conditions.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Traders need to make their entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market in order to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management, but trade in large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, following the example of the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.