America catches investors off guard: Trump’s administration may impose tariffs soon like the world has not seen for nearly a century. Analysts cautiously suggest that the United States is heading toward the highest average tariff rates since the 1940s.

Initially, it was expected that tariffs would rise modestly by 5-7.5 percentage points in 2025. However, the forecast has doubled to a substantial 10-15 percentage points.

At the moment, the White House has already imposed 20% tariffs on Chinese imports related to fentanyl, as well as 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and certain goods from Canada and Mexico that violate the USMCA agreement.

Experts estimate that the current measures have already increased the tariff burden by about 6 percentage points. A new series of tariffs will enter into force on April 2, with their effect spreading over more economic sectors.

So, the US economy braces for a major challenge: commodity prices will soar while business sentiment could worsen significantly. Analysts warn that due to protectionist trade policy, US economic growth could shrink by about 0.5 percentage points, while inflation may rise to the same degree.

The Federal Reserve will likely prefer to act as if nothing special is happening for now, but analysts cautiously note that sharp changes in market sentiment make investors slightly nervous.

The US tariff enthusiasm will not go unnoticed in other countries. The first victims will be China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, and Japan, who are already mentally ready for reciprocal measures. The automotive, pharmaceutical, and semiconductor industries are all likely to be included in the "tariff watchlist."

Economic sentiment has already turned sour. The consumer confidence index and small business indicators have been declining in recent months. Political uncertainty is growing. Moreover, the post-election optimism among consumers and manufacturers has been slowly fading.

However, there is some good news: despite the tariff battles, employment in the US remains high, and jobless rates are at historic lows. Though consumption has slowed a bit, the labor market is still holding steady. All in all, the US economy is showing remarkable resilience.