empty
31.03.2025 11:58 AM
EUR/USD. March 31st. The Dollar Has No Chance

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the 1.0781–1.0797 zone, allowing the upward movement to continue toward the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0857. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and lead to a slight decline toward the support zone at 1.0781–1.0797. A consolidation above 1.0857 would open the way for further growth toward the next level at 1.0944. Bulls are attacking again and are fully entitled to do so.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak by just a few points, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. This currently indicates a gradual trend reversal toward a bearish direction. However, Donald Trump introduced new tariffs last week, causing the bears to retreat once again. Trump is likely to introduce tariffs again this week, giving the bulls another opportunity to launch an offensive.

Friday's news background was interesting, but the events of Wednesday and Thursday were far more significant for traders. It was announced that Donald Trump had imposed tariffs on all car imports into the US, which enabled the bulls to launch a new offensive. After that event, other news had little weight in the eyes of traders. For example, a decent US GDP report for Q4 didn't help the dollar, and the euro didn't fall even after weak unemployment data from Germany. Thus, I fully agree with the majority of analysts who believe that the only reason for the US dollar's decline is Donald Trump. It's not hard to assume that new tariffs will trigger another fall in the dollar. Many already expect a significant slowdown or even a recession in the US economy. Naturally, the dollar cannot remain in demand if the economy is set to slow sharply, and the dollar is no longer considered a "safe haven" asset.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 1.0818. Thus, the upward trend may resume toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.0969. The bullish trend remains intact, and no signs of divergence are currently observed in any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 844 Long positions and closed 5,256 Short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group has turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 190,000, while Short positions total 124,000.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large players were reducing their euro holdings, but now for seven weeks in a row, they have been unwinding Shorts and increasing Longs. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed still favors the US dollar due to rate differentials. However, Donald Trump's policies have become a more significant factor for traders, as they may prompt dovish shifts in the FOMC's stance and potentially trigger a US recession.

Economic calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

Eurozone – Germany Retail Sales Change (08:55 UTC) Eurozone – Germany Consumer Price Index (12:00 UTC) US – Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC)

On March 31, the economic calendar contains three entries, with only the German inflation data drawing notable attention. The influence of the news background on market sentiment may remain weak on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Short positions are possible today upon a rebound from the 1.0857 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0734. Long positions may be considered upon a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart with a target at 1.0857, or upon a close above 1.0857 with a target at 1.0944.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0529–1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD Forecast for May 13, 2025

The main event yesterday, which somewhat confused the markets, was the agreement between the U.S. and China to return to the mutual tariffs that were in place before April

Laurie Bailey 04:49 2025-05-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for May 13, 2025

By the end of yesterday, the British pound declined by 129 pips, following a 1.43% increase in the dollar index. The support range of 1.3184–1.3208 was breached, and the movement

Laurie Bailey 04:49 2025-05-13 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for May 13, 2025

The USD/JPY pair made a sharp and powerful move yesterday, covering more than three figures and precisely reaching the target level of 148.66, the low from last December. The trick

Laurie Bailey 04:49 2025-05-13 UTC+2

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for May 12-15, 2025: sell below $106,250 (200 EMA - 21 SMA)

Early in the American session, Bitcoin is trading around $104,250, above the 21st SMA and within the bullish trend channel formed on May 4th. We observe exhaustion. During the last

Dimitrios Zappas 17:34 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 12-15, 2025: buy above 1.1080 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1123, bouncing after reaching the bottom of the downtrend channel. We observe overbought conditions. At the opening of this

Dimitrios Zappas 17:33 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Forex forecast 12/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 13:37 2025-05-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD. May 12. The Ukraine conflict may be resolved

Good day, dear traders! On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rose to the resistance zone of 1.1265–1.1282, rebounded, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. The downward movement may continue

Samir Klishi 10:04 2025-05-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD. May 12. Trump's First Trade Deal

Good day, dear traders! On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday nearly completed a rebound from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3205, with a reversal in favor

Samir Klishi 10:04 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD for May 9-12, 2025: sell below $3,361 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

On the other hand, if the bearish force prevails, gold is expected to continue falling and could again test the 6/8 Murray level, which could serve as a good point

Dimitrios Zappas 15:01 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 9, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1338, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell below the support zone of 1.1240–1.1265

Samir Klishi 11:24 2025-05-09 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.