empty
28.03.2025 11:48 AM
EUR/USD. March 28th. Bears Retreat, but Haven't Surrendered
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0734 and rose to the resistance zone of 1.0781–1.0797. A rebound from this zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a renewed decline toward 1.0734. A breakout and consolidation above this zone would allow the euro to continue rising toward the next Fibonacci level of 200.0% at 1.0857.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak by just a few points, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. This suggests a gradual trend reversal in a bearish direction. Donald Trump's tariffs have put strong pressure on the dollar over the past few weeks, but the market has reacted rather weakly to the latest round of tariffs.

Thursday's news background was important, but not in the way traders had hoped. Overnight, it was announced that Donald Trump had imposed 25% tariffs on all imported cars, rendering the rest of the day's events irrelevant for market participants. The dollar remained under pressure all day, even despite stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP data. Countries affected by the new tariffs, especially the European Union, are likely preparing a response. We are clearly in the midst of a trade war. However, traders are no longer rushing to sell the dollar. While the dollar fell all day yesterday, the decline was not particularly strong. The market is gradually coming to terms with the new reality, which implies that more rounds of tariffs from the U.S. are likely. If the dollar falls with each new round, it could soon drop to around 1.20. Still, the dollar's value should be influenced by more than just Trump—and the market understands that. As mentioned, the U.S. GDP report beat expectations.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar following the formation of another bearish divergence and a consolidation below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818. This suggests continued decline toward the next retracement level at 50.0% – 1.0696. The euro still has room to fall, as the price remains above the upward trend channel. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders opened 305 long positions and closed 46,030 short positions. The "Non-commercial" group's sentiment has once again turned bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 189,000, while short positions have dropped to 129,000.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large players were shedding euro positions, but they've now been reducing short positions and increasing long ones for six straight weeks. The diverging paths in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed still favor the U.S. dollar due to the widening interest rate differential. However, Trump's policy is a stronger factor for traders, as it could have a dovish effect on the FOMC and even lead to a recession in the U.S. economy.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

  • Eurozone – Germany Unemployment Rate (08:55 UTC)
  • U.S. – PCE Price Index (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Personal Income and Spending (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On March 28, the economic calendar includes four events, none of which are considered highly important. As a result, the impact of news flow on market sentiment on Friday may be limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone, targeting 1.0734 and 1.0622. The first target has been reached. Today, short positions can be considered on a bounce from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone with the same targets. Long positions may be considered on an hourly close above this zone, targeting 1.0857, but for now, bears remain in control.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0529 to 1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. May 23rd. Smart Money System Analysis

After the breakdown of the bearish structure, we witnessed a strong rally in the euro, which, as of now, cannot be considered complete. The new bullish structure remains intact

Samir Klishi 20:09 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for May 23-27, 2025: sell below $108,700 (200 EMA - 21 SMA)

Bitcoin is trading around 109,369, bouncing back after reaching the key level of 107,500, which represents strong support for Bitcoin. If it consolidates above 108,700 (21SMA) in the coming hours

Dimitrios Zappas 18:16 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD for May 23-27, 2025: sell below $3,360 (7/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

On the other hand, if gold consolidates above 3,370, the outlook could remain positive, and we could expect it to rise and reach 8/8 of the Murray level at 3,437

Dimitrios Zappas 18:14 2025-05-23 UTC+2

XAG/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Silver is regaining positive momentum, maintaining control above the key psychological level of $33.00. The emergence of buying on declines confirms that this week's breakout above the upper boundary

Irina Yanina 17:27 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 23, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair retraced back to the support zone of 1.1260–1.1282, reversed in favor of the euro, and resumed its upward movement toward the yet-to-be-tested resistance zone

Samir Klishi 16:39 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 23, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair traded sideways on Thursday but overall continues its upward movement. On Friday, the pair achieved a new consolidation above the minor resistance level

Samir Klishi 16:28 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Forex forecast 23/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold, and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:51 2025-05-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for May 23, 2025

The Eurozone PMI data for May, published yesterday, was disappointing. The Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.0 to 48.4 (vs. expectations of 49.2), and the Services PMI declined from 50.1

Laurie Bailey 05:16 2025-05-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for May 23, 2025

Yesterday, the British pound closed at its opening level, which visually appears as a consolidation below the 1.3433 level — a level that the price is already attempting to break

Laurie Bailey 04:48 2025-05-23 UTC+2

EUR/NZD Forecast for May 23, 2025

On the daily chart, the pair's quote breaks above the MACD line after spending two weeks below it. The Marlin oscillator's entry into positive territory supports the assumption

Laurie Bailey 04:43 2025-05-23 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.