empty
28.03.2025 09:19 AM
Markets Have Found the Culprits

If you don't get it the first time, you will the second. The S&P 500 sell-off, led by U.S. and foreign automaker shares, continued a second day after the imposition of 25% tariffs. Donald Trump threatened the European Union and Canada with retaliation should they respond jointly to the import duties, and companies have begun tallying up losses. The broad stock index is confidently moving toward the lower boundary of its medium-term trading range of 5500–5790, but blaming only the White House occupant for all its troubles would be misguided.

The sell-off of overvalued "Magnificent Seven" companies, slowing corporate profit growth, and a weakening U.S. economy contribute to a capital shift from North America to Europe. European indices are currently outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin. However, according to the world's largest asset manager, this advantage may not last long. BlackRock believes that Germany's fiscal stimulus will primarily benefit banks and defense companies — a very narrow group. Therefore, one shouldn't count on the EuroStoxx 50 and DAX 40 rally to continue at the same pace.

Performance of European vs. U.S. Stock Indices

This image is no longer relevant

By contrast, the U.S. stock market will likely receive a fresh boost once the situation surrounding Donald Trump's protectionist policies becomes clearer. Many companies will adapt to the tariffs, enabling the S&P 500 to grow again.

But first, the broad stock index would do well to shed some dead weight. In 2025, that weight comes from the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Back in February, they were trading at 45 times forward earnings. Only the sell-off has brought the P/E ratio down to 35 — still high, though the 11% drop in that figure is striking.

Q1 earnings season kicks off in a few weeks, and Wall Street's 7.1% earnings forecast is impressive. But that's four percentage points lower than what experts were projecting at the end of 2024. The discrepancy in estimates is above the historical average. Forecasts have been cut across all 11 S&P 500 sectors, and earnings growth is expected to slow in nine.

Earnings Forecast Trends by S&P 500 Sectors

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

The stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP reading of 2.4% shouldn't be misleading. For January–March, Bloomberg analysts expect GDP growth to slow to 1–1.5%, and the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator signals an even weaker pace — just 0.2%. Inflation remains elevated, tying the Fed's hands and preventing the central bank from throwing markets a lifeline.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 continues its previously forecasted move from the upper boundary of its consolidation range (5500–5790) toward the lower bound. It makes sense to hold and even build on short positions once support at 5670 is broken — especially since the Broadening Wedge pattern is playing out clearly.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is falling below the psychological level of 1.1300. The election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor of Germany reduces uncertainty regarding the economic strength

Irina Yanina 11:12 2025-05-08 UTC+2

The Market Will Save Itself

The Fed is no longer the center of the financial universe, and the S&P 500's 13% rally from April lows has once again made U.S. equities expensive. That sums

Marek Petkovich 10:13 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Fed's Rate Hold and US-China Talks Support the Dollar (High Likelihood of EUR/USD and Gold Declines)

The Federal Reserve remained firm, with its leadership reaffirming a steadfast wait-and-see approach. Interestingly, the Fed did not respond to notable changes in the economy, citing heightened uncertainty

Pati Gani 09:53 2025-05-08 UTC+2

The Bank of England Is Ready to Cut Rates

The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point today and signal that another reduction is likely in June. This could potentially

Jakub Novak 09:21 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Why Gold Dropped Sharply After the Fed Meeting

Gold experienced a slight uptick following the Federal Reserve's meeting, where interest rates were kept unchanged and Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is in no rush

Jakub Novak 09:17 2025-05-08 UTC+2

FOMC Meeting Results

The euro and British pound resumed their decline against the US dollar following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting results; however, the drop was not significant, and the future

Jakub Novak 09:15 2025-05-08 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 8? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, and none are significant. Germany will release its industrial production report for March, and the U.S. will publish weekly jobless claims. These

Paolo Greco 06:05 2025-05-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 8: The Tesla Crisis as the Apex of Trump's Policy

The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly for most of Wednesday despite the evening FOMC meeting. As per our usual approach, we won't be analyzing the results of that meeting

Paolo Greco 03:39 2025-05-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 8: A First Step Toward De-escalation?

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade sideways for most of Wednesday. There was a minor upward movement, but as a reminder, the pair has now been range-bound for three

Paolo Greco 03:39 2025-05-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Awaiting the Geneva Meeting

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a narrow price range ahead of announcing the Federal Reserve's May meeting results. Although the outcome is largely predetermined (the central bank

Irina Manzenko 00:47 2025-05-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.