Trade Analysis and Guidance on Trading the Euro

There were no tests of the levels I indicated during the first half of the day.

A lack of statistical data from the eurozone had a restraining effect on the euro's potential growth, leading the EUR/USD pair to fluctuate within a narrow range. With limited macroeconomic input, market participants were left without a clear directional move—but that could change in the second half of the day.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders data serve as a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy. An increase in orders reflects heightened investment in the manufacturing sector, hinting at potential economic growth. However, the impact of this data on the dollar is not always straightforward—support for the greenback typically only comes if the actual figures significantly exceed forecasts. Otherwise, even a slight miss can have the opposite effect. If the published figures disappoint, this may be interpreted as a sign of slowing growth, which could negatively impact the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll be relying more on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches the area around 1.0801 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0836. I plan to exit long positions at 1.0836 and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move down from the entry point. A euro rally today is only likely after weak U.S. data and dovish comments from Fed officials. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0778 price level, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0801 and 1.0836 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0778 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0752, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from this level). Selling pressure on the pair may return if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0801 while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0778 and 1.0752 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price where the instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – Approximate price for setting a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price where the instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – Approximate price for setting a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Reminder:

Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you don't apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.