Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Eight macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. Preliminary March readings of business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors will be published in Germany, the Eurozone, the U.S., and the UK. Individually, these indices may have a relatively weak impact on trading, but with eight releases in total, the market reaction could be significant. A slight increase is expected across all European indices, but it's important to emphasize that what matters is how actual figures compare to forecasts, not just the absolute values. If the actual readings come in higher than the previous ones but below expectations, we will likely see a decline in the corresponding currency.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech stands out among Monday's fundamental events. However, it is hard to expect anything new or noteworthy from Bailey, considering that the BoE just held its policy meeting on Thursday, where he fully expressed his views on the economy, inflation, and monetary policy. We believe Bailey will unlikely provide the markets with any fresh insights on Monday. The BoE has taken a somewhat hawkish stance, which supports the British pound. However, it's worth noting that the pound has been rising steadily for three consecutive weeks without pauses or corrections. The British currency needs a pullback regardless of Bailey's rhetoric or the BoE's stance.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the new week, both currency pairs may continue their decline, which has been building over recent weeks. Both pairs have broken below their ascending channels, and the Federal Reserve's current position allows the dollar to reclaim some of the ground it lost unfairly. Of course, no one knows when Trump will announce new trade tariffs, but even they cannot trigger an endless decline of the U.S. dollar.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.