According to analysts, Bitcoin is currently in a relatively stable state but is in no hurry to reach new highs. This has caused concern among market participants, though some experts see no reason for alarm.

In previous growth cycles, major news events and market anticipation played a key role in BTC rise. In 2023–2024, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming halving fueled optimism among traders and investors. Experts at Crypto Summit said that Bitcoin needed a trigger for a new bull rally.

At the moment, however, there are no major events that could spark a rapid surge. As a result, the market remains cautious, trading within a wide range while waiting for the next significant catalyst. Experts predict that in the first half of 2025, BTC is likely to continue fluctuating between $90,000 and $110,000, with a new all-time high not expected before the second half of the year.

On January 20, BTC hit its first peak of the year at $109,114. However, it is currently experiencing some challenges. On February 24, it opened with a decline, trading around $95,360. Over the past 24 hours, BTC reached a low of $95,270 and a high of $96,594.

Last week, BTC had reason to celebrate a milestone. On February 19, 2021, BTC's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time. Since then, it has nearly doubled, now standing at $1.9 trillion. However, these past achievements have had little effect on Bitcoin's current performance, as the leading digital asset remains below $100,000.

Late on Wednesday, February 19, Bitcoin continued trading sideways. A balance between bullish and bearish pressure has been keeping it in a tight range since early February 2025. Over the past two weeks, BTC has been hovering below $100,000. Technical and on-chain data suggests that it may stay below this key level for a while.

The BTC technical chart indicates a strengthening bearish scenario. The relative strength index (RSI) also signals downward pressure. Currently, the RSI is at 44.29, below the neutral 50-point mark.

An RSI reading of 44.29 suggests that selling pressure is stronger than buying interest but has not yet reached oversold territory (30 points). This leaves room for a deeper decline or potential consolidation before a trend reversal.

BTC at crossroads: drop to $90,000 or break above $100,000?

Bitcoin is now trading slightly below the $99,805 resistance level. If selling pressure increases, BTC risks breaking out of its narrow range to the downside, potentially falling below $90,000 and touching $89,434.

On the other hand, renewed bullish momentum could reverse the bearish trend. In that case, BTC may break through $99,805 and surpass the barrier of $100,000. If the currency gains momentum from this level, it could reach its all-time high of $109,350.

However, for a breakout to happen, Bitcoin needs a strong catalyst, which is currently lacking. Many traders agree that the cryptocurrency needs a major event or a high-profile development to attract investors again.

US monetary policy is one more key factor for BTC. Analysts believe that a Federal Reserve rate cut would increase the appeal of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Experts at TEHNOBIT note that a moderate BTC rally could follow an interest rate cut by the Fed but believe this is unlikely before the regulator's June meeting.

Experts have differing opinions on the timing of the Fed's next moves. Some expect a significant rate cut by the end of 2025, while others anticipate the first changes by summer. If monetary easing coincides with major institutional deals or government initiatives, Bitcoin's growth could accelerate.

Analysts also highlight the connection between the tech sector and the crypto market. Any major developments—especially in artificial intelligence—could boost the entire industry. TEHNOBIT emphasizes that if investors identify a rapidly growing niche in AI, the entire sector will gain momentum, and cryptocurrencies will follow.

Preliminary forecasts suggest that BTC will remain in a broad trading range until mid-2025 without setting new all-time highs. However, market participants are waiting for potential catalysts: major crypto industry news, Fed policy shifts, and technological breakthroughs. If all these factors align, BTC could reach a new record high in the second half of 2025.