昨日,英國公布了三月份的通脹數據。核心消費者物價指數(CPI)從年增率3.0%下降至2.8%,而總體CPI從年增率2.8%下降至2.6%,低於2.7%的預測值。英鎊試圖朝1.3311的目標水平上漲,但未能如願,當天僅上漲了11點。今晨,價格已移動至1.3184–1.3208的區間。
然而,日線圖顯示價格精確測試了上升價格通道的上邊界。這個測試比我們預計提前了一天進行,但多頭已經完成其任務,一切都準備好迎接反轉。
從1月13日至4月16日的增長情況可以用費波那契網格完美描述。23.6%的回撤水平與我們在1.3101的支撐相吻合,而38.2%的水平與1.2816/47的目標範圍一致。Kruzenshtern線也正向該區域移動。若跌破此支撐,可能會為英鎊長期下跌鋪路。
在四小時圖上,價格正在嘗試進入1.3184–1.3208的支撐區域,同時Marlin振盪器達到下行趨勢區域的邊界。價格和振盪器同時突破支撐位將加強看跌動能。第一個目標是1.3101。
週三,EUR/USD貨幣對繼續下跌,並穩定在1.1260–1.1282支撐區以下。因此,今日的價格下跌可能會向下一個斐波那契回撤位23.6%即1.1186推進。
在小時圖上,週三英鎊/美元對跌至1.3425水平。若從該水平反彈,將對英鎊有利,並可能帶動其上升至1.3520的161.8%斐波那契回撤位。
由於美國法律訴訟的啟動以及美元在外匯市場的走強,黃金價格持續承壓。許多市場參與者似乎押注特朗普對「深層政府」的戰鬥最終可能失敗,這將顯著緩解全球緊張局勢並推動風險資產需求。
在部分连续三日下跌后,英鎊已達到1.3433的目標支撐位。在日線圖上,Marlin振盪器尚未觸及其上升通道的下邊界,並繼續拉低價格。
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