03.02.2025 12:15 AM
一月份以一根看漲蠟燭結束，創下了6127.41的歷史新高。然而，該指數僅以上影線達到這一高點，未能收於先前水平之上。值得注意的是，空方也更新了上個月的低點，並且周末前的周度收盤反映了不確定性主導的情況。這些條件使市場可能會向下突破目前支撐位5948.42（週短期趨勢），並啟動下行修正。如果看漲活動重啟，接近心理水平6250-6300的阻力區仍將是主要目標。
上週，指數以一個深度向下的缺口開盤，這個缺口的下滑幅度無法完全被日燭圖的實體所覆蓋，只剩下一條影線。如果6021.10點的日短期趨勢在此盤整區間內無法繼續作為支撐點，那麼空頭的下一個關鍵水平將是5948.42點（日中期趨勢 + 週短期趨勢）以及日Ichimoku雲圖支撐區間位於5943.52點與5897.38點之間。若跌破這些水平，將創造出進一步下跌的機會。
在H4時間框架中，上週末多頭目標已實現，即突破H4 Ichimoku雲層至6111.15。如預期一樣，多頭隨後暫停。這個已完成的H4目標為情緒的轉變建立了堅實的基礎。然而，多頭未能回到之前的高點或繼續上行。目前，指數在6049.95的每週長期趨勢線附近的平衡區域內交易，此趨勢線橫向移動已有一段時間，顯示市場的不確定性。
在該趨勢線之上交易將有利於多頭情緒的加強，而低於該趨勢線的交易可能創造出發展空頭動力的機會。日內波動將由經典樞軸支撐位和阻力位指導，這些水準會在每天開市時更新。
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