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19.12.2024 02:38 PM
美元/加元。分析與預測
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今日,美元/加元對繼續從自2020年3月以來的最高水平穩步回落。

這一下跌可歸因於日線圖上因超買狀況而進行的部分獲利回吐。然而,整體基本面背景仍然支持看漲情緒。美聯儲對明年放鬆貨幣政策採取謹慎態度,繼續支持美國國債收益率上升。此外,地緣政治風險和貿易戰擔憂為美元提供助力。與此同時,加拿大的政治動盪、加拿大央行的鴿派立場以及原油價格下跌削弱了與商品相關的加元,幫助限制美元/加元對的下行空間。

從技術面看,相對強弱指數(RSI)仍高於70水準,顯示出超買狀況。儘管如此,多週上升通道的突破以及隨後的上行加速被視為關鍵看漲觸發因素,增強了低位買入回調的可能性。因此,若進一步修正性下跌到心理關口1.4400以下,可能會在上升趨勢通道突破點附近找到強勁支撐。

1.4300整數關口是需關注的一個關鍵支撐。若明確跌破該水平,可能觸發技術性拋售,將匯價拖至約1.4250的水平橫向區域附近的支撐。下探的路徑可能進一步延伸至1.4220-1.4215區域以及心理關口1.4200水平。

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另一方面,1.4450 水平充當阻力。若持續買盤突破 1.4450-1.4465 區域或多年高點,將為 USD/CAD 匯率重測 1.4500 心理水平鋪平道路。進一步的上漲可能將即期價格提升至 1.4560 的中間障礙,最終朝向 1.4600 的整數關口及 2020 年 3 月的高點 1.4665-1.4670 區域邁進。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025
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